Predicting Morbidity and Mortality in Elderly Surgical Patients

Study Results

Results pending

The study team has not published outcome measurements, participant flow, or safety data for this trial yet. Check back later for updates.

Basic Information

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Recruitment Status

UNKNOWN

Total Enrollment

1800 participants

Study Classification

OBSERVATIONAL

Study Start Date

2022-01-01

Study Completion Date

2023-09-01

Brief Summary

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This proposed multicentre study builds on the findings of our recent validation of USEM and mCriSTAl predictive tools in a single centre at the Complejo Hospitalario de Navarra, whose results were recently published (https://europepmc.org/article/med/33111261). By expanding to a multicentre cohort and comparing to a third instrument, the investigators aim to examine the independent validity and generalizability of three scores and investigate potential for simplification of the prediction with anticipated greater accuracy. The ultimate goal is to determine whether these predictive tool can be used to assist surgical decision-making about older patients with expected poorer prognosis or high risk of death in the short term.

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Detailed Description

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Eligible institutions: large hospitals (\>200 beds) with wards admitting older surgical patients where (a) electronic medical records are available, (b) have staff committed to recruiting a minimum of 100 participants with complete follow-up, and (c) give consent for the Lead statistician in Spain to access de-identified data for aggregated analysis.

Procedures: Recruitment is anticipated to take 6-12 months and will be conducted prospectively after screening by non-specialist hospital staff (junior doctors, medical students, nurses) confirms eligibility. The 3-month follow-up for outcomes will include completion of a standard questionnaire/form via either review of clinical record, access to death records (where applicable), or telephone call to families/proxy/next of kin/person responsible at 3 months after initial recruitment.

Findings will be published in aggregated and anonymized form, but if the sample from individual participating institutions is large enough, hospital-specific profiles can be delivered in identifiable form to relevant hospitals for the benefit of clinicians and service administrators.

Conditions

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Surgery--Complications

Study Design

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Observational Model Type

COHORT

Study Time Perspective

PROSPECTIVE

Study Groups

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Hospital Universitario de Álava, Spain

large hospitals (\>200 beds) with wards admitting older surgical patients where (a) electronic medical records are available, (b) have staff committed to recruiting a minimum of 100 participants with complete follow-up, and (c) give consent for the Lead statistician in Spain to access de-identified data for aggregated analysis.