Forecasting ED Overcrowding With Statistical Methods: A Prospective Validation Study

NCT ID: NCT05174481

Last Updated: 2022-01-10

Study Results

Results pending

The study team has not published outcome measurements, participant flow, or safety data for this trial yet. Check back later for updates.

Basic Information

Get a concise snapshot of the trial, including recruitment status, study phase, enrollment targets, and key timeline milestones.

Recruitment Status

UNKNOWN

Total Enrollment

160000 participants

Study Classification

OBSERVATIONAL

Study Start Date

2022-01-01

Study Completion Date

2022-12-31

Brief Summary

Review the sponsor-provided synopsis that highlights what the study is about and why it is being conducted.

The aim of this study is to prospectively validate statistical forecasting tools that have been widely used retrospectively in forecasting ED overcrowding

Detailed Description

Dive into the extended narrative that explains the scientific background, objectives, and procedures in greater depth.

Emergency department (ED) overcrowding is a chronic international issue that has been repeatedly associated with detrimental treatment outcomes such increased 10-day-mortality. Forecasting future overcrowding would enable pre-emptive staffing decisions that could alleviate or prevent overcrowding along with its detrimental effects.

Over the years, several predictive algorithms have been proposed ranging from generalized linear models to state space models and, more recently, deep learning algorithms. However, the performance of these algorithms has only been reported retrospectively and the clinically significant accuracy of these algorithms remains unclear.

In this study the investigators aim to investigate the accuracy of the previously reported ED forecasting algorithms in a prospective setting analogous to the way these tools would be used if used implemented as a decision-support system in a real-life clinical setting.

Conditions

See the medical conditions and disease areas that this research is targeting or investigating.

Emergencies

Study Design

Understand how the trial is structured, including allocation methods, masking strategies, primary purpose, and other design elements.

Observational Model Type

COHORT

Study Time Perspective

PROSPECTIVE

Interventions

Learn about the drugs, procedures, or behavioral strategies being tested and how they are applied within this trial.

Early warning system for emergency department overcrowding

In this study, no interventions are performed.

Intervention Type OTHER

Eligibility Criteria

Check the participation requirements, including inclusion and exclusion rules, age limits, and whether healthy volunteers are accepted.

Inclusion Criteria

* All patients presenting in the Emergency Department
Minimum Eligible Age

16 Years

Eligible Sex

ALL

Accepts Healthy Volunteers

No

Sponsors

Meet the organizations funding or collaborating on the study and learn about their roles.

Tampere University Hospital

OTHER

Sponsor Role lead

Responsible Party

Identify the individual or organization who holds primary responsibility for the study information submitted to regulators.

Responsibility Role SPONSOR

Central Contacts

Reach out to these primary contacts for questions about participation or study logistics.

Jalmari Tuominen, MD

Role: CONTACT

+358505961192

Antti Roine, PhD

Role: CONTACT

References

Explore related publications, articles, or registry entries linked to this study.

Gul M, Celik E. An exhaustive review and analysis on applications of statistical forecasting in hospital emergency departments. Health Syst (Basingstoke). 2018 Nov 19;9(4):263-284. doi: 10.1080/20476965.2018.1547348.

Reference Type BACKGROUND
PMID: 33354320 (View on PubMed)

Richardson DB. Increase in patient mortality at 10 days associated with emergency department overcrowding. Med J Aust. 2006 Mar 6;184(5):213-6. doi: 10.5694/j.1326-5377.2006.tb00204.x.

Reference Type BACKGROUND
PMID: 16515430 (View on PubMed)

Other Identifiers

Review additional registry numbers or institutional identifiers associated with this trial.

ed-pro

Identifier Type: -

Identifier Source: org_study_id

More Related Trials

Additional clinical trials that may be relevant based on similarity analysis.