PMRA and Shapley-Based Machine Learning for Predicting Lymph Node Metastasis in Central Subregions of Clinically Node-Negative Papillary Thyroid Microcarcinoma: a Prospective Multicenter Validation and Development of a Web Calculator

NCT ID: NCT06871956

Last Updated: 2025-03-12

Study Results

Results pending

The study team has not published outcome measurements, participant flow, or safety data for this trial yet. Check back later for updates.

Basic Information

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Recruitment Status

COMPLETED

Total Enrollment

4882 participants

Study Classification

OBSERVATIONAL

Study Start Date

2016-01-01

Study Completion Date

2023-12-31

Brief Summary

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Background:Management of clinically node-negative(cN0) papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) is complicated by high occult lymph node metastasis (LNM) rates. We aimed to develop and validate a prediction model for central LNM using machine learning (ML) and traditional nomograms through Probability-based Ranking Model Approach (PMRA).

Methods: We conducted a prospective multicenter study involving 4,882 patients across 3 hospitals (2016-2023). After applying inclusion criteria, 1,953 patients from the primary center were allocated to model train and test (7:3 ratio). External validation included prospective cohorts of 286 and 176 patients from two independent centers.13 ML algorithms and traditional nomogram models were systematically evaluated using PMRA.We compared models using preoperative features alone versus those incorporating both preoperative and intraoperative frozen section pathology data. Feature selection utilized six methods, with L1-based selection proving optimal for most predictions.Model interpretability was enhanced through SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) visualization.

Detailed Description

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Conditions

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Papillary Thyroid Microcarcinoma

Study Design

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Observational Model Type

CASE_CONTROL

Study Time Perspective

PROSPECTIVE

Study Groups

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After applying inclusion criteria, 1,953 patients from the primary center were allocated to model tr

After applying inclusion criteria, 1,953 patients from the primary center were allocated to model train and test (7:3 ratio). External validation included prospective cohorts of 286 and 176 patients from two independent centers.13 ML algorithms and traditional nomogram models were systematically evaluated using PMRA.We compared models using preoperative features alone versus those incorporating both preoperative and intraoperative frozen section pathology data. Feature selection utilized six methods, with L1-based selection proving optimal for most predictions.Model interpretability was enhanced through SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) visualization.

PMRA and Shapley-Based Machine Learning for Predicting Lymph Node Metastasis in Central Subregions of Clinically Node-Negative Papillary Thyroid Microcarcinoma

Intervention Type DIAGNOSTIC_TEST

PMRA and Shapley-Based Machine Learning for Predicting Lymph Node Metastasis in Central Subregions of Clinically Node-Negative Papillary Thyroid Microcarcinoma: A Prospective Multicenter Validation and Development of a Web Calculator

Interventions

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PMRA and Shapley-Based Machine Learning for Predicting Lymph Node Metastasis in Central Subregions of Clinically Node-Negative Papillary Thyroid Microcarcinoma

PMRA and Shapley-Based Machine Learning for Predicting Lymph Node Metastasis in Central Subregions of Clinically Node-Negative Papillary Thyroid Microcarcinoma: A Prospective Multicenter Validation and Development of a Web Calculator

Intervention Type DIAGNOSTIC_TEST

Eligibility Criteria

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Inclusion Criteria

* First-time thyroid cancer surgery patients
* cN0-PTMC patients diagnosed through fine-needle aspiration and imaging.

Exclusion Criteria

* Secondary surgery
* Other pathological types of thyroid cancer
* Incomplete clinical data
* Distant metastasis or history of cervical radiation exposure.
Eligible Sex

ALL

Accepts Healthy Volunteers

No

Sponsors

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First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University

OTHER

Sponsor Role lead

Responsible Party

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Xinliang Su

Chief Physician

Responsibility Role PRINCIPAL_INVESTIGATOR

Locations

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1 Friendship Road, Yuzhong District Chongqing

Chongqing, , China

Site Status

Countries

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China

Other Identifiers

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1stHospitalofChongqingMU

Identifier Type: -

Identifier Source: org_study_id

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