Developing and Evaluating a Machine-Learning Opioid Overdose Prediction & Risk-Stratification Tool in Primary Care

NCT ID: NCT06810076

Last Updated: 2025-04-11

Study Results

Results pending

The study team has not published outcome measurements, participant flow, or safety data for this trial yet. Check back later for updates.

Basic Information

Get a concise snapshot of the trial, including recruitment status, study phase, enrollment targets, and key timeline milestones.

Recruitment Status

RECRUITING

Clinical Phase

NA

Total Enrollment

2000 participants

Study Classification

INTERVENTIONAL

Study Start Date

2025-04-08

Study Completion Date

2026-10-02

Brief Summary

Review the sponsor-provided synopsis that highlights what the study is about and why it is being conducted.

This clinical trial aims to evaluate the pilot implementation of a machine-learning (ML)-driven clinical decision support (CDS) tool designed to predict opioid overdose risk within the electronic health record (EHR) system at UF Health Internal Medicine and Family Medicine clinics in Gainesville, Florida. The study will use a pre- versus post-implementation design to compare outcomes within clinics, focusing on measures such as naloxone prescribing rates and opioid overdose occurrences. Researchers will also assess the usability, acceptability, and feasibility of the CDS tool through qualitative interviews with primary care clinicians (PCPs) in the participating clinics.

Detailed Description

Dive into the extended narrative that explains the scientific background, objectives, and procedures in greater depth.

This clinical trial evaluates the pilot implementation of a ML-driven CDS tool designed to predict opioid overdose risk within the electronic health record (EHR) system at thirteen UF Health internal medicine and family medicine clinics in Gainesville, Florida.

The implementation process involved backend and frontend development and integration of the CDS tool. For backend integration, the investigators reviewed clinical workflows, designed a data flow plan to incorporate risk scores into patient charts, and collaborated with UF Health IT and Integrated Data Repository (IDR) Research Services to address alert implementation, data flow, server specifications, and responsibilities. Risk assessments approved by UF Health IT and the institutional review board (IRB) ensured secure access to patient health information (PHI) and enabled EHR integration. For frontend development, the investigators used a user-centered design approach to create the CDS tool prototype, incorporating feedback from PCPs during formative interviews to refine the user interface and ensure timely, actionable alerts through the EPIC system without disrupting clinical workflows.

The study primarily aims to assess the usability, acceptance, and feasibility of the CDS tool six months post-implementation through mixed-method evaluations. Researchers will use semi-structured interviews and an online questionnaire to collect feedback from PCPs, focusing on alert usability, preferences, and outcomes. Quantitative analyses will evaluate alert penetration, usage patterns, and PCP actions, while qualitative analyses will explore themes and insights from override comments to guide tool optimization. Researchers will also explore secondary patient-level outcomes using EHR data such as naloxone prescriptions.

Conditions

See the medical conditions and disease areas that this research is targeting or investigating.

Opiate Overdose Opioid-Related Disorders Narcotic-Related Disorders Substance-related Disorders Chemically-Induced Disorders Mental Disorders

Study Design

Understand how the trial is structured, including allocation methods, masking strategies, primary purpose, and other design elements.

Allocation Method

NA

Intervention Model

SINGLE_GROUP

This single-arm clinical trial employs a pre- and post-implementation pilot evaluation design to assess the usability, acceptability, and feasibility of implementing a ML-driven overdose CDS tool across thirteen UF Health primary care clinics (3 internal medicine and 6 family medicine clinics in Gainesville, Florida). The CDS tool will generate an Overdose Prevention Alert (OPA) when a PCP signs an opioid order in Epic® for patients at elevated risk of opioid overdose identified by ML algorithm.
Primary Study Purpose

HEALTH_SERVICES_RESEARCH

Blinding Strategy

NONE

Study Groups

Review each arm or cohort in the study, along with the interventions and objectives associated with them.

Overdose Prevention Alert (OPA) Intervention Arm

The intervention arm will receive a ML CDS tool that provides interruptive alerts for patients at elevated risk of opioid overdose, triggered when a clinician signs an opioid order.

Group Type EXPERIMENTAL

Machine Learning-Based Clinical Decision Support: Overdose Prevention Alert (OPA) Intervention

Intervention Type BEHAVIORAL

In this study, researchers will pilot test an interruptive, ML CDS tool for opioid overdose risk across thirteen primary care clinics at the UF Health in Gainesville, FL. When a patient is identified by the ML algorithm as having an elevated overdose risk and a PCP signs an opioid prescription for the patient, an Opioid Prevention Alert (OPA) will be triggered. The alert will include the rationale for the patient's elevated risk status and provide three risk mitigation recommendations: optimizing pain treatment and mental health support, reviewing and discussing risks with the patient, and offering naloxone annually if no prior naloxone order is found in the patient's record. PCPs can also select an override reason, such as the patient already has naloxone, declined the intervention, is not present/it is not the right time, or the alert is not relevant/other comments, when appropriate.

Interventions

Learn about the drugs, procedures, or behavioral strategies being tested and how they are applied within this trial.

Machine Learning-Based Clinical Decision Support: Overdose Prevention Alert (OPA) Intervention

In this study, researchers will pilot test an interruptive, ML CDS tool for opioid overdose risk across thirteen primary care clinics at the UF Health in Gainesville, FL. When a patient is identified by the ML algorithm as having an elevated overdose risk and a PCP signs an opioid prescription for the patient, an Opioid Prevention Alert (OPA) will be triggered. The alert will include the rationale for the patient's elevated risk status and provide three risk mitigation recommendations: optimizing pain treatment and mental health support, reviewing and discussing risks with the patient, and offering naloxone annually if no prior naloxone order is found in the patient's record. PCPs can also select an override reason, such as the patient already has naloxone, declined the intervention, is not present/it is not the right time, or the alert is not relevant/other comments, when appropriate.

Intervention Type BEHAVIORAL

Eligibility Criteria

Check the participation requirements, including inclusion and exclusion rules, age limits, and whether healthy volunteers are accepted.

Inclusion Criteria

For PCP level outcomes assessment

* PCPs
* practicing in any of the 13 participating clinics (10 UF Health Family Medicine clinics and 3 UF Health Internal Medicine) in Gainesville, Florida.

For patient level outcomes assessment:


* are aged ≥18 years
* received any opioid prescription in the past year prior to their clinic visit.

Exclusion Criteria

* had malignant cancer diagnosis or hospice care prior to study enrollment
Minimum Eligible Age

18 Years

Eligible Sex

ALL

Accepts Healthy Volunteers

No

Sponsors

Meet the organizations funding or collaborating on the study and learn about their roles.

National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA)

NIH

Sponsor Role collaborator

Applied Decision Science

UNKNOWN

Sponsor Role collaborator

University of Pittsburgh

OTHER

Sponsor Role lead

Responsible Party

Identify the individual or organization who holds primary responsibility for the study information submitted to regulators.

Wei-Hsuan Lo-Ciganic

Professor

Responsibility Role PRINCIPAL_INVESTIGATOR

Principal Investigators

Learn about the lead researchers overseeing the trial and their institutional affiliations.

Wei-Hsuan Lo-Ciganic, PhD

Role: PRINCIPAL_INVESTIGATOR

Division of General Internal Medicine, School of Medicine, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA

Locations

Explore where the study is taking place and check the recruitment status at each participating site.

University of Florida Health Internal Medicine and Family Medicine

Gainesville, Florida, United States

Site Status RECRUITING

Countries

Review the countries where the study has at least one active or historical site.

United States

Central Contacts

Reach out to these primary contacts for questions about participation or study logistics.

Wei-Hsuan Lo-Ciganic, PhD

Role: CONTACT

412-383-2171

Debbie L Wilson, PhD

Role: CONTACT

352-273-6255

Facility Contacts

Find local site contact details for specific facilities participating in the trial.

Khoa Ngyuen, PharmD

Role: primary

352-273-9418

Wei-Hsuan J Lo-Ciganic, PhD

Role: backup

352-273-9418 ext. 412-383-2171

References

Explore related publications, articles, or registry entries linked to this study.

Lo-Ciganic WH, Donohue JM, Yang Q, Huang JL, Chang CY, Weiss JC, Guo J, Zhang HH, Cochran G, Gordon AJ, Malone DC, Kwoh CK, Wilson DL, Kuza CC, Gellad WF. Developing and validating a machine-learning algorithm to predict opioid overdose in Medicaid beneficiaries in two US states: a prognostic modelling study. Lancet Digit Health. 2022 Jun;4(6):e455-e465. doi: 10.1016/S2589-7500(22)00062-0.

Reference Type BACKGROUND
PMID: 35623798 (View on PubMed)

Lo-Ciganic WH, Huang JL, Zhang HH, Weiss JC, Kwoh CK, Donohue JM, Gordon AJ, Cochran G, Malone DC, Kuza CC, Gellad WF. Using machine learning to predict risk of incident opioid use disorder among fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries: A prognostic study. PLoS One. 2020 Jul 17;15(7):e0235981. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0235981. eCollection 2020.

Reference Type BACKGROUND
PMID: 32678860 (View on PubMed)

Lo-Ciganic WH, Huang JL, Zhang HH, Weiss JC, Wu Y, Kwoh CK, Donohue JM, Cochran G, Gordon AJ, Malone DC, Kuza CC, Gellad WF. Evaluation of Machine-Learning Algorithms for Predicting Opioid Overdose Risk Among Medicare Beneficiaries With Opioid Prescriptions. JAMA Netw Open. 2019 Mar 1;2(3):e190968. doi: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2019.0968.

Reference Type BACKGROUND
PMID: 30901048 (View on PubMed)

Militello LG, Diiulio J, Wilson DL, Nguyen KA, Harle CA, Gellad W, Lo-Ciganic WH. Using human factors methods to mitigate bias in artificial intelligence-based clinical decision support. J Am Med Inform Assoc. 2025 Feb 1;32(2):398-403. doi: 10.1093/jamia/ocae291.

Reference Type BACKGROUND
PMID: 39569464 (View on PubMed)

Nguyen K, Wilson DL, Diiulio J, Hall B, Militello L, Gellad WF, Harle CA, Lewis M, Schmidt S, Rosenberg EI, Nelson D, He X, Wu Y, Bian J, Staras SAS, Gordon AJ, Cochran J, Kuza C, Yang S, Lo-Ciganic W. Design and development of a machine-learning-driven opioid overdose risk prediction tool integrated in electronic health records in primary care settings. Bioelectron Med. 2024 Oct 18;10(1):24. doi: 10.1186/s42234-024-00156-3.

Reference Type BACKGROUND
PMID: 39420438 (View on PubMed)

Related Links

Access external resources that provide additional context or updates about the study.

https://www.cp3.pitt.edu/

Center for Pharmaceutical Policy \& Prescribing website

Other Identifiers

Review additional registry numbers or institutional identifiers associated with this trial.

R01DA050676

Identifier Type: NIH

Identifier Source: secondary_id

View Link

STUDY24040038

Identifier Type: -

Identifier Source: org_study_id

More Related Trials

Additional clinical trials that may be relevant based on similarity analysis.