Machine-Learning Prediction and Reducing Overdoses With EHR Nudges

NCT ID: NCT06806163

Last Updated: 2025-10-10

Study Results

Results pending

The study team has not published outcome measurements, participant flow, or safety data for this trial yet. Check back later for updates.

Basic Information

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Recruitment Status

RECRUITING

Clinical Phase

NA

Total Enrollment

1350 participants

Study Classification

INTERVENTIONAL

Study Start Date

2025-03-10

Study Completion Date

2026-03-31

Brief Summary

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The goal of this cluster randomized clinical trial is to test a clinician-targeted behavioral nudge intervention in the Electronic Health Record (EHR) for patients who are identified by a machine-learning based risk prediction model as having an elevated risk for an opioid overdose.

The clinical trial will evaluate the effectiveness of providing a flag in the EHR to identify individuals at elevated risk with and without behavioral nudges/best practice alerts (BPAs) as compared to usual care by primary care clinicians.

The primary goals of the study are to improve opioid prescribing safety and reduce overdose risk.

Detailed Description

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In response to the opioid overdose crisis, health systems have instituted multiple interventions to reduce patient risk, including decreasing unsafe opioid prescribing among high-risk patients and dispensing naloxone. However, these interventions face two key challenges. First, there are limited and poorly performing tools to identify who is truly at risk of overdose, leading to burdensome interventions targeting an overly broad population or missing key high-risk individuals. Second, even with more accurate identification of high-risk patients, highly effective strategies to change clinician behavior remain limited. Common cognitive biases may underlie clinicians' lack of response to risk factors for overdose.

This project aims to address both of these limitations by combining more accurate risk prediction tools to identify those at elevated risk of opioid overdose with novel "nudge" interventions based on principles of behavioral economics that have been shown to address cognitive biases and change prescribing behavior. The primary hypothesis is that high-risk patients in primary care practices randomized to the elevated-risk flag + nudge intervention will have safer prescribing compared to usual care.

Conditions

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Opioid Overdose Opioid Use Opioid Use Disorder Opioids

Study Design

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Allocation Method

RANDOMIZED

Intervention Model

PARALLEL

This interventional study will be a cluster randomized trial across UPMC primary care practices. Practices will be randomized into one of 3 clinician-targeted intervention groups:

1. Usual care
2. Elevated-risk flag only
3. Elevated-risk flag combined with behavioral nudge alerts.

The electronic health record (EHR) based intervention will be applied in the participating practices for clinicians whose patients have been identified as elevated-risk through the risk prediction algorithm.
Primary Study Purpose

HEALTH_SERVICES_RESEARCH

Blinding Strategy

SINGLE

Investigators

Study Groups

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Usual Care

Patients in the practices randomized to the Usual Care arm will receive standard care practice without change.

Group Type ACTIVE_COMPARATOR

Usual Care

Intervention Type BEHAVIORAL

Patients in the practices randomized to the Usual Care arm will receive standard care practice without change.

EHR-Embedded Elevated-Risk Flag

An elevated-risk flag will be embedded in the EHR and prominently displayed in the chart during encounters for patients identified as having elevated-risk for opioid overdose.

Group Type EXPERIMENTAL

EHR-Embedded Elevated-Risk Flag

Intervention Type BEHAVIORAL

Clinicians seeing patients at elevated predicted risk will see a flag on the EHR 'storyboard' during in person or telephone encounters indicating the patient is at elevated predicted risk of opioid overdose. The clinician will have the option of including this information into their decision-making process when providing care. There will be no best practice alerts/behavioral nudges in this arm.

EHR-Embedded Elevated-Risk Flag with Behavioral Nudges

An elevated-risk flag will be embedded in the EHR and prominently displayed in the chart during encounters for patients identified as having elevated-risk for opioid overdose. This flag will be combined with a set of best practice alerts/behavioral nudges that will trigger when certain conditions are met during encounters with elevated-risk patients.

Group Type EXPERIMENTAL

EHR-Embedded Elevated-Risk Flag with Behavioral Nudges

Intervention Type BEHAVIORAL

Clinicians seeing patients at elevated predicted risk for opioid overdose will see a flag on the EHR storyboard indicating that the patient is at elevated predicted risk.

Clinicians will also receive up to 4 best practice alerts/behavioral nudges during an in-person or telephone primary care encounter with elevated risk patients when certain requirements are met: 1) if the patient does not have an active naloxone prescription on their medication list, the clinicians will receive an active choice alert during any medication ordering to encourage naloxone prescription; 2) if the patient's opioid dosage is \>50 MME, OR they are ordered a new opioid prescription, OR they have an overlapping opioid and benzodiazepine prescription order, the clinicians will receive an accountable justification alert when the relevant order is entered.

Interventions

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EHR-Embedded Elevated-Risk Flag

Clinicians seeing patients at elevated predicted risk will see a flag on the EHR 'storyboard' during in person or telephone encounters indicating the patient is at elevated predicted risk of opioid overdose. The clinician will have the option of including this information into their decision-making process when providing care. There will be no best practice alerts/behavioral nudges in this arm.

Intervention Type BEHAVIORAL

EHR-Embedded Elevated-Risk Flag with Behavioral Nudges

Clinicians seeing patients at elevated predicted risk for opioid overdose will see a flag on the EHR storyboard indicating that the patient is at elevated predicted risk.

Clinicians will also receive up to 4 best practice alerts/behavioral nudges during an in-person or telephone primary care encounter with elevated risk patients when certain requirements are met: 1) if the patient does not have an active naloxone prescription on their medication list, the clinicians will receive an active choice alert during any medication ordering to encourage naloxone prescription; 2) if the patient's opioid dosage is \>50 MME, OR they are ordered a new opioid prescription, OR they have an overlapping opioid and benzodiazepine prescription order, the clinicians will receive an accountable justification alert when the relevant order is entered.

Intervention Type BEHAVIORAL

Usual Care

Patients in the practices randomized to the Usual Care arm will receive standard care practice without change.

Intervention Type BEHAVIORAL

Other Intervention Names

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EHR-Embedded Elevated-Risk Flag with Best Practice Alerts (BPAs)

Eligibility Criteria

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Inclusion Criteria

* Received an opioid prescription within the past year
* Age 18 years or older at the time of the opioid prescription
* At least one visit to an internal medicine or family care practice within the past year

Exclusion Criteria

* Diagnosis of malignant cancer within the past year
* Enrollment in hospice care
Minimum Eligible Age

18 Years

Eligible Sex

ALL

Accepts Healthy Volunteers

No

Sponsors

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National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA)

NIH

Sponsor Role collaborator

University of Pittsburgh

OTHER

Sponsor Role lead

Responsible Party

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Walid Gellad

Professor of Medicine

Responsibility Role PRINCIPAL_INVESTIGATOR

Principal Investigators

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Walid F Gellad, MD, MPH

Role: PRINCIPAL_INVESTIGATOR

University of Pittsburgh Center for Pharmaceutical Policy and Prescribing

Locations

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University of Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, United States

Site Status RECRUITING

Countries

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United States

Central Contacts

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Lead Research Program Coordinator, CP3

Role: CONTACT

(412) 692-4889

References

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Lo-Ciganic WH, Huang JL, Zhang HH, Weiss JC, Wu Y, Kwoh CK, Donohue JM, Cochran G, Gordon AJ, Malone DC, Kuza CC, Gellad WF. Evaluation of Machine-Learning Algorithms for Predicting Opioid Overdose Risk Among Medicare Beneficiaries With Opioid Prescriptions. JAMA Netw Open. 2019 Mar 1;2(3):e190968. doi: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2019.0968.

Reference Type BACKGROUND
PMID: 30901048 (View on PubMed)

Lo-Ciganic WH, Huang JL, Zhang HH, Weiss JC, Kwoh CK, Donohue JM, Gordon AJ, Cochran G, Malone DC, Kuza CC, Gellad WF. Using machine learning to predict risk of incident opioid use disorder among fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries: A prognostic study. PLoS One. 2020 Jul 17;15(7):e0235981. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0235981. eCollection 2020.

Reference Type BACKGROUND
PMID: 32678860 (View on PubMed)

Lo-Ciganic WH, Donohue JM, Hulsey EG, Barnes S, Li Y, Kuza CC, Yang Q, Buchanich J, Huang JL, Mair C, Wilson DL, Gellad WF. Integrating human services and criminal justice data with claims data to predict risk of opioid overdose among Medicaid beneficiaries: A machine-learning approach. PLoS One. 2021 Mar 18;16(3):e0248360. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0248360. eCollection 2021.

Reference Type BACKGROUND
PMID: 33735222 (View on PubMed)

Lo-Ciganic WH, Donohue JM, Yang Q, Huang JL, Chang CY, Weiss JC, Guo J, Zhang HH, Cochran G, Gordon AJ, Malone DC, Kwoh CK, Wilson DL, Kuza CC, Gellad WF. Developing and validating a machine-learning algorithm to predict opioid overdose in Medicaid beneficiaries in two US states: a prognostic modelling study. Lancet Digit Health. 2022 Jun;4(6):e455-e465. doi: 10.1016/S2589-7500(22)00062-0.

Reference Type BACKGROUND
PMID: 35623798 (View on PubMed)

Guo J, Gellad WF, Yang Q, Weiss JC, Donohue JM, Cochran G, Gordon AJ, Malone DC, Kwoh CK, Kuza CC, Wilson DL, Lo-Ciganic WH. Changes in predicted opioid overdose risk over time in a state Medicaid program: a group-based trajectory modeling analysis. Addiction. 2022 Aug;117(8):2254-2263. doi: 10.1111/add.15878. Epub 2022 Apr 3.

Reference Type BACKGROUND
PMID: 35315173 (View on PubMed)

Hulsey E, Hershey TB, Parker LS, Kuza C, Fedro-Byrom S, Gellad WF. Overdose Risk Prediction Algorithms: The Need for a Comprehensive Legal Framework. Health Affairs Forefront. 2022 November 22. doi: 10.1377/forefront.20221118.549875.

Reference Type BACKGROUND

Gellad WF, Yang Q, Adamson KM, Kuza CC, Buchanich JM, Bolton AL, Murzynski SM, Goetz CT, Washington T, Lann MF, Chang CH, Suda KJ, Tang L. Development and validation of an overdose risk prediction tool using prescription drug monitoring program data. Drug Alcohol Depend. 2023 May 1;246:109856. doi: 10.1016/j.drugalcdep.2023.109856. Epub 2023 Mar 27.

Reference Type BACKGROUND
PMID: 37001323 (View on PubMed)

Nguyen K, Wilson DL, Diiulio J, Hall B, Militello L, Gellad WF, Harle CA, Lewis M, Schmidt S, Rosenberg EI, Nelson D, He X, Wu Y, Bian J, Staras SAS, Gordon AJ, Cochran J, Kuza C, Yang S, Lo-Ciganic W. Design and development of a machine-learning-driven opioid overdose risk prediction tool integrated in electronic health records in primary care settings. Bioelectron Med. 2024 Oct 18;10(1):24. doi: 10.1186/s42234-024-00156-3.

Reference Type BACKGROUND
PMID: 39420438 (View on PubMed)

Militello LG, Diiulio J, Wilson DL, Nguyen KA, Harle CA, Gellad W, Lo-Ciganic WH. Using human factors methods to mitigate bias in artificial intelligence-based clinical decision support. J Am Med Inform Assoc. 2025 Feb 1;32(2):398-403. doi: 10.1093/jamia/ocae291.

Reference Type BACKGROUND
PMID: 39569464 (View on PubMed)

Related Links

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https://www.cp3.pitt.edu/

Center for Pharmaceutical Policy \& Prescribing website

Other Identifiers

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R01DA044985-04

Identifier Type: NIH

Identifier Source: secondary_id

View Link

STUDY22040068

Identifier Type: -

Identifier Source: org_study_id

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