Machine Learning to Predict Lymph Node Metastasis in T1 Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma
NCT ID: NCT06256185
Last Updated: 2024-02-13
Study Results
The study team has not published outcome measurements, participant flow, or safety data for this trial yet. Check back later for updates.
Basic Information
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COMPLETED
NA
1267 participants
INTERVENTIONAL
2010-01-15
2023-07-15
Brief Summary
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Detailed Description
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Patients with T1 squamous cell carcinoma treated with surgery between January 2010 and September 2021 from 3 institutions were included in this study. Machine-learning models were developed using data on patients' age and sex, depth of tumor invasion, tumor size, tumor location, macroscopic tumor type, lymphatic and vascular invasion, and histologic grade. Elastic net regression (ELR), random forest (RF), extreme gradient boosting (XGB), and a combined (ensemble) model of these was generated. Use Area Under Curve (AUC) to evaluate the predictive ability of the model. The contribution to the model of each factor was calculated. In order to better meet clinical needs, the investigators have designed the model as a user-friendly website.
Conditions
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Study Design
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NA
SINGLE_GROUP
DIAGNOSTIC
NONE
Study Groups
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Arm used for predicting lymph node metastasis
esophagectomy
Resection of esophageal tumor and lymph node dissection
Interventions
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esophagectomy
Resection of esophageal tumor and lymph node dissection
Eligibility Criteria
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Inclusion Criteria
* (II) no history of concomitant or prior malignancy
* (III) tumor with pT1 staging
* (IV) 15 or more lymph nodes examined
Exclusion Criteria
ALL
No
Sponsors
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Shanghai Zhongshan Hospital
OTHER
Responsible Party
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Locations
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Zhongshan Hospital Affiliated to Fudan University
Shanghai, Shanghai Municipality, China
Countries
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References
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Erratum: Global cancer statistics 2018: GLOBOCAN estimates of incidence and mortality worldwide for 36 cancers in 185 countries. CA Cancer J Clin. 2020 Jul;70(4):313. doi: 10.3322/caac.21609. Epub 2020 Apr 6. No abstract available.
Ohashi S, Miyamoto S, Kikuchi O, Goto T, Amanuma Y, Muto M. Recent Advances From Basic and Clinical Studies of Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma. Gastroenterology. 2015 Dec;149(7):1700-15. doi: 10.1053/j.gastro.2015.08.054. Epub 2015 Sep 12.
Merkow RP, Bilimoria KY, Keswani RN, Chung J, Sherman KL, Knab LM, Posner MC, Bentrem DJ. Treatment trends, risk of lymph node metastasis, and outcomes for localized esophageal cancer. J Natl Cancer Inst. 2014 Jul 16;106(7):dju133. doi: 10.1093/jnci/dju133. Print 2014 Jul.
Alvarez Herrero L, Pouw RE, van Vilsteren FG, ten Kate FJ, Visser M, van Berge Henegouwen MI, Weusten BL, Bergman JJ. Risk of lymph node metastasis associated with deeper invasion by early adenocarcinoma of the esophagus and cardia: study based on endoscopic resection specimens. Endoscopy. 2010 Dec;42(12):1030-6. doi: 10.1055/s-0030-1255858. Epub 2010 Oct 19.
Gamboa AM, Kim S, Force SD, Staley CA, Woods KE, Kooby DA, Maithel SK, Luke JA, Shaffer KM, Dacha S, Saba NF, Keilin SA, Cai Q, El-Rayes BF, Chen Z, Willingham FF. Treatment allocation in patients with early-stage esophageal adenocarcinoma: Prevalence and predictors of lymph node involvement. Cancer. 2016 Jul 15;122(14):2150-7. doi: 10.1002/cncr.30040. Epub 2016 May 3.
Dubecz A, Kern M, Solymosi N, Schweigert M, Stein HJ. Predictors of Lymph Node Metastasis in Surgically Resected T1 Esophageal Cancer. Ann Thorac Surg. 2015 Jun;99(6):1879-85; discussion 1886. doi: 10.1016/j.athoracsur.2015.02.112. Epub 2015 Apr 28.
Zheng H, Tang H, Wang H, Fang Y, Shen Y, Feng M, Xu S, Fan H, Ge D, Wang Q, Tan L. Nomogram to predict lymph node metastasis in patients with early oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma. Br J Surg. 2018 Oct;105(11):1464-1470. doi: 10.1002/bjs.10882. Epub 2018 Jun 4.
Duan X, Shang X, Yue J, Ma Z, Chen C, Tang P, Jiang H, Yu Z. A nomogram to predict lymph node metastasis risk for early esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. BMC Cancer. 2021 Apr 20;21(1):431. doi: 10.1186/s12885-021-08077-z.
Collins GS, Dhiman P, Andaur Navarro CL, Ma J, Hooft L, Reitsma JB, Logullo P, Beam AL, Peng L, Van Calster B, van Smeden M, Riley RD, Moons KG. Protocol for development of a reporting guideline (TRIPOD-AI) and risk of bias tool (PROBAST-AI) for diagnostic and prognostic prediction model studies based on artificial intelligence. BMJ Open. 2021 Jul 9;11(7):e048008. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2020-048008.
Jiang KY, Huang H, Chen WY, Yan HJ, Wei ZT, Wang XW, Li HX, Zheng XY, Tian D. Risk factors for lymph node metastasis in T1 esophageal squamous cell carcinoma: A systematic review and meta-analysis. World J Gastroenterol. 2021 Feb 28;27(8):737-750. doi: 10.3748/wjg.v27.i8.737.
Pavlou M, Ambler G, Seaman SR, Guttmann O, Elliott P, King M, Omar RZ. How to develop a more accurate risk prediction model when there are few events. BMJ. 2015 Aug 11;351:h3868. doi: 10.1136/bmj.h3868.
van Vliet EP, Heijenbrok-Kal MH, Hunink MG, Kuipers EJ, Siersema PD. Staging investigations for oesophageal cancer: a meta-analysis. Br J Cancer. 2008 Feb 12;98(3):547-57. doi: 10.1038/sj.bjc.6604200. Epub 2008 Jan 22.
Choi J, Kim SG, Kim JS, Jung HC, Song IS. Comparison of endoscopic ultrasonography (EUS), positron emission tomography (PET), and computed tomography (CT) in the preoperative locoregional staging of resectable esophageal cancer. Surg Endosc. 2010 Jun;24(6):1380-6. doi: 10.1007/s00464-009-0783-x. Epub 2009 Dec 24.
Ou J, Wu L, Li R, Wu CQ, Liu J, Chen TW, Zhang XM, Tang S, Wu YP, Yang LQ, Tan BG, Lu FL. CT radiomics features to predict lymph node metastasis in advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma and to discriminate between regional and non-regional lymph node metastasis: a case control study. Quant Imaging Med Surg. 2021 Feb;11(2):628-640. doi: 10.21037/qims-20-241.
Wang S, Chen X, Fan J, Lu L. Prognostic Significance of Lymphovascular Invasion for Thoracic Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma. Ann Surg Oncol. 2016 Nov;23(12):4101-4109. doi: 10.1245/s10434-016-5416-8. Epub 2016 Jul 19.
Li B, Chen H, Xiang J, Zhang Y, Kong Y, Garfield DH, Li H. Prevalence of lymph node metastases in superficial esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. J Thorac Cardiovasc Surg. 2013 Nov;146(5):1198-203. doi: 10.1016/j.jtcvs.2013.07.006. Epub 2013 Aug 26.
Shen W, Shen Y, Tan L, Jin C, Xi Y. A nomogram for predicting lymph node metastasis in surgically resected T1 esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. J Thorac Dis. 2018 Jul;10(7):4178-4185. doi: 10.21037/jtd.2018.06.51.
Akutsu Y, Uesato M, Shuto K, Kono T, Hoshino I, Horibe D, Sazuka T, Takeshita N, Maruyama T, Isozaki Y, Akanuma N, Matsubara H. The overall prevalence of metastasis in T1 esophageal squamous cell carcinoma: a retrospective analysis of 295 patients. Ann Surg. 2013 Jun;257(6):1032-8. doi: 10.1097/SLA.0b013e31827017fc.
Emi M, Hihara J, Hamai Y, Furukawa T, Ibuki Y, Okada M. Clinicopathologic Features of Submucosal Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma. Ann Thorac Surg. 2017 Dec;104(6):1858-1864. doi: 10.1016/j.athoracsur.2017.06.037. Epub 2017 Oct 21.
Provided Documents
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Document Type: Statistical Analysis Plan
Other Identifiers
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81902396
Identifier Type: -
Identifier Source: org_study_id
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