A Rapid Diagnostic of Risk in Hospitalized Patients Using Machine Learning

NCT ID: NCT05893420

Last Updated: 2025-07-29

Study Results

Results pending

The study team has not published outcome measurements, participant flow, or safety data for this trial yet. Check back later for updates.

Basic Information

Get a concise snapshot of the trial, including recruitment status, study phase, enrollment targets, and key timeline milestones.

Recruitment Status

ACTIVE_NOT_RECRUITING

Clinical Phase

NA

Total Enrollment

30000 participants

Study Classification

INTERVENTIONAL

Study Start Date

2024-12-31

Study Completion Date

2026-12-31

Brief Summary

Review the sponsor-provided synopsis that highlights what the study is about and why it is being conducted.

In this study, the investigators will deploy a software-based clinical decision support tool (eCARTv5) into the electronic health record (EHR) workflow of multiple hospital wards. eCART's algorithm is designed to analyze real-time EHR data, such as vitals and laboratory results, to identify which patients are at increased risk for clinical deterioration. The algorithm specifically predicts imminent death or the need for intensive care unit (ICU) transfer. Within the eCART interface, clinical teams are then directed toward standardized guidance to determine next steps in care for elevated-risk patients.

The investigators hypothesize that implementing such a tool will be associated with a decrease in ventilator utilization, length of stay, and mortality for high-risk hospitalized adults.

Detailed Description

Dive into the extended narrative that explains the scientific background, objectives, and procedures in greater depth.

The objective of this proposal is to rapidly deploy a clinical decision support tool (eCARTv5) within the electronic health record of multiple medical-surgical units. eCART combines a real-time machine learning algorithm for identifying patients at increased risk for intensive care (ICU) transfer and death with clinical pathways to standardize the care of these patients based on a real-time, quantitative assessment of patient risk.

The investigators hypothesize that implementing such a tool will be associated with a decrease in ventilator utilization, length of stay, and mortality for high-risk hospitalized adults.

Background:

Clinical deterioration occurs in approximately 5% of hospitalized adults. Delays in recognition of deterioration heighten the risk of adverse outcomes. Machine learning algorithms enhance clinical decision-making and can improve the quality of patient care. However, their impact on clinical outcomes depends not only on the sensitivity and specificity of the algorithm but also on how well that algorithm is integrated into provider workflows and facilitates timely and appropriate intervention.

Preliminary Data:

eCART has been built upon more than a decade of ongoing scientific research and chronicled in numerous peer-reviewed publications. eCART was developed at the University of Chicago by Drs. Dana Edelson and Matthew Churpek. The first version (eCARTv1) was derived and validated using linear logistic regression in a dataset of nearly 60,000 adult ward patients from a single medical center. That model had 16 variables in it and was subsequently validated in silent mode, demonstrating that eCART could alert clinicians more than 24 hours in advance of ICU transfer or cardiac arrest. eCARTv2, derived and validated in a dataset of nearly 270,000 patients from 5 hospitals, improved upon the earlier version by utilizing a cubic spline logistic regression model with 27 variables and demonstrated improved accuracy over the Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS), a commonly used score that can be hand- calculated by nurses at the bedside (AUC 0.77 vs. 0.70 for cardiac arrest, ICU transfer or death). In a multicenter clinical implementation study, eCARTv2 was associated with a 29% relative risk reduction for mortality. In further development of eCART, the University of Chicago research team demonstrated that upgrading from a cubic spline model to a machine learning model, such as a random forest or gradient boosted machine (GBM), could increase the AUC. In the most recent development - eCART v5 - the research team has advanced the analytic using a gradient boosted machine learning model trained on a multi-center dataset of more than 800,000 patient records. Now with 97 variables, this more sophisticated model increases the accuracy by which clinicians can predict clinical deterioration.

Conditions

See the medical conditions and disease areas that this research is targeting or investigating.

Sepsis Septicemia Respiratory Failure Hemodynamic Instability COVID-19 Cardiac Arrest Clinical Deterioration

Study Design

Understand how the trial is structured, including allocation methods, masking strategies, primary purpose, and other design elements.

Allocation Method

NON_RANDOMIZED

Intervention Model

PARALLEL

This a parallel study with an intervention group of medical-surgical patients where the tool will be used by providers, and a control group wherein the tool will run silently in the background. The primary analysis will utilize a delta-delta design comparing the intervention hospitals' pre vs. post results to the control hospitals' pre vs. post results. The primary analysis will be limited to patients who ever had an elevated eCARTv5 as those are the ones who would have been eligible for intervention (viewing of the eCARTv5 trend and following the clinical pathway).
Primary Study Purpose

PREVENTION

Blinding Strategy

TRIPLE

Participants Caregivers Outcome Assessors
In control hospitals, eCART will be scoring silently in the background and not visible to the care provider or the patient. Because this is administrative data, the outcomes assessor will similarly be blinded to the score. In the intervention hospitals, care providers will be aware of the score and trained to it. Patients may be aware as a result.

Study Groups

Review each arm or cohort in the study, along with the interventions and objectives associated with them.

Intervention Arm

Intervention Arm (experimental): eCARTv5 will monitor all adult medical-surgical (ward) patients at hospitals that implement the tool in their EHR. A pre vs. post analysis will be done to compare the impact of the tool at the intervention hospitals.

Group Type EXPERIMENTAL

eCARTv5 clinical deterioration monitoring

Intervention Type DEVICE

eCART is a predictive analytic used for the identification of acute clinical deterioration built upon more than a decade of ongoing scientific research and chronicled in numerous peer-reviewed publications. eCART draws upon readily available patient data from the EHR, rapidly quantifies disease severity, and predicts the likelihood of critical illness onset.

Control Arm

Control Arm (active comparator): hospital sites that do not implement eCARTv5 will be active comparator.

Group Type ACTIVE_COMPARATOR

Standard of care control

Intervention Type OTHER

Standard of care is the health system's clinical best practices and workflows for identifying high-risk patients for clinical deterioration, including other tools already built into the electronic health record (EHR). Hospitals that do not implement eCARTv5 will be compared as a control against hospitals that do implement eCARTv5.

Interventions

Learn about the drugs, procedures, or behavioral strategies being tested and how they are applied within this trial.

eCARTv5 clinical deterioration monitoring

eCART is a predictive analytic used for the identification of acute clinical deterioration built upon more than a decade of ongoing scientific research and chronicled in numerous peer-reviewed publications. eCART draws upon readily available patient data from the EHR, rapidly quantifies disease severity, and predicts the likelihood of critical illness onset.

Intervention Type DEVICE

Standard of care control

Standard of care is the health system's clinical best practices and workflows for identifying high-risk patients for clinical deterioration, including other tools already built into the electronic health record (EHR). Hospitals that do not implement eCARTv5 will be compared as a control against hospitals that do implement eCARTv5.

Intervention Type OTHER

Eligibility Criteria

Check the participation requirements, including inclusion and exclusion rules, age limits, and whether healthy volunteers are accepted.

Inclusion Criteria

* 18 years old
* Admitted to an eCART-monitored medical-surgical unit (scoring location)

Exclusion Criteria

* Younger than 18 years old
* Not admitted to an eCART-monitored medical surgical unit (scoring location)
Minimum Eligible Age

18 Years

Eligible Sex

ALL

Accepts Healthy Volunteers

No

Sponsors

Meet the organizations funding or collaborating on the study and learn about their roles.

Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority

FED

Sponsor Role collaborator

University of Chicago

OTHER

Sponsor Role collaborator

BayCare Health System

OTHER

Sponsor Role collaborator

University of Wisconsin, Madison

OTHER

Sponsor Role collaborator

Yale University

OTHER

Sponsor Role collaborator

AgileMD, Inc.

INDUSTRY

Sponsor Role lead

Responsible Party

Identify the individual or organization who holds primary responsibility for the study information submitted to regulators.

Responsibility Role SPONSOR

Principal Investigators

Learn about the lead researchers overseeing the trial and their institutional affiliations.

Dana P Edelson, MD, MS

Role: STUDY_CHAIR

AgileMD, Inc.

Locations

Explore where the study is taking place and check the recruitment status at each participating site.

Yale New Haven Health System

New Haven, Connecticut, United States

Site Status

BayCare Health System

Clearwater, Florida, United States

Site Status

University of Wisconsin Health

Madison, Wisconsin, United States

Site Status

Countries

Review the countries where the study has at least one active or historical site.

United States

References

Explore related publications, articles, or registry entries linked to this study.

Churpek MM, Yuen TC, Park SY, Meltzer DO, Hall JB, Edelson DP. Derivation of a cardiac arrest prediction model using ward vital signs*. Crit Care Med. 2012 Jul;40(7):2102-8. doi: 10.1097/CCM.0b013e318250aa5a.

Reference Type BACKGROUND
PMID: 22584764 (View on PubMed)

Churpek MM, Yuen TC, Winslow C, Robicsek AA, Meltzer DO, Gibbons RD, Edelson DP. Multicenter development and validation of a risk stratification tool for ward patients. Am J Respir Crit Care Med. 2014 Sep 15;190(6):649-55. doi: 10.1164/rccm.201406-1022OC.

Reference Type BACKGROUND
PMID: 25089847 (View on PubMed)

Kang MA, Churpek MM, Zadravecz FJ, Adhikari R, Twu NM, Edelson DP. Real-Time Risk Prediction on the Wards: A Feasibility Study. Crit Care Med. 2016 Aug;44(8):1468-73. doi: 10.1097/CCM.0000000000001716.

Reference Type BACKGROUND
PMID: 27075140 (View on PubMed)

Winslow CJ, Edelson DP, Churpek MM, Taneja M, Shah NS, Datta A, Wang CH, Ravichandran U, McNulty P, Kharasch M, Halasyamani LK. The Impact of a Machine Learning Early Warning Score on Hospital Mortality: A Multicenter Clinical Intervention Trial. Crit Care Med. 2022 Sep 1;50(9):1339-1347. doi: 10.1097/CCM.0000000000005492. Epub 2022 Aug 15.

Reference Type BACKGROUND
PMID: 35452010 (View on PubMed)

Other Identifiers

Review additional registry numbers or institutional identifiers associated with this trial.

1.0

Identifier Type: -

Identifier Source: org_study_id

More Related Trials

Additional clinical trials that may be relevant based on similarity analysis.