A Rapid Diagnostic of Risk in Hospitalized Patients Using Machine Learning
NCT ID: NCT05893420
Last Updated: 2025-07-29
Study Results
The study team has not published outcome measurements, participant flow, or safety data for this trial yet. Check back later for updates.
Basic Information
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ACTIVE_NOT_RECRUITING
NA
30000 participants
INTERVENTIONAL
2024-12-31
2026-12-31
Brief Summary
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The investigators hypothesize that implementing such a tool will be associated with a decrease in ventilator utilization, length of stay, and mortality for high-risk hospitalized adults.
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Detailed Description
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The investigators hypothesize that implementing such a tool will be associated with a decrease in ventilator utilization, length of stay, and mortality for high-risk hospitalized adults.
Background:
Clinical deterioration occurs in approximately 5% of hospitalized adults. Delays in recognition of deterioration heighten the risk of adverse outcomes. Machine learning algorithms enhance clinical decision-making and can improve the quality of patient care. However, their impact on clinical outcomes depends not only on the sensitivity and specificity of the algorithm but also on how well that algorithm is integrated into provider workflows and facilitates timely and appropriate intervention.
Preliminary Data:
eCART has been built upon more than a decade of ongoing scientific research and chronicled in numerous peer-reviewed publications. eCART was developed at the University of Chicago by Drs. Dana Edelson and Matthew Churpek. The first version (eCARTv1) was derived and validated using linear logistic regression in a dataset of nearly 60,000 adult ward patients from a single medical center. That model had 16 variables in it and was subsequently validated in silent mode, demonstrating that eCART could alert clinicians more than 24 hours in advance of ICU transfer or cardiac arrest. eCARTv2, derived and validated in a dataset of nearly 270,000 patients from 5 hospitals, improved upon the earlier version by utilizing a cubic spline logistic regression model with 27 variables and demonstrated improved accuracy over the Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS), a commonly used score that can be hand- calculated by nurses at the bedside (AUC 0.77 vs. 0.70 for cardiac arrest, ICU transfer or death). In a multicenter clinical implementation study, eCARTv2 was associated with a 29% relative risk reduction for mortality. In further development of eCART, the University of Chicago research team demonstrated that upgrading from a cubic spline model to a machine learning model, such as a random forest or gradient boosted machine (GBM), could increase the AUC. In the most recent development - eCART v5 - the research team has advanced the analytic using a gradient boosted machine learning model trained on a multi-center dataset of more than 800,000 patient records. Now with 97 variables, this more sophisticated model increases the accuracy by which clinicians can predict clinical deterioration.
Conditions
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Study Design
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NON_RANDOMIZED
PARALLEL
PREVENTION
TRIPLE
Study Groups
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Intervention Arm
Intervention Arm (experimental): eCARTv5 will monitor all adult medical-surgical (ward) patients at hospitals that implement the tool in their EHR. A pre vs. post analysis will be done to compare the impact of the tool at the intervention hospitals.
eCARTv5 clinical deterioration monitoring
eCART is a predictive analytic used for the identification of acute clinical deterioration built upon more than a decade of ongoing scientific research and chronicled in numerous peer-reviewed publications. eCART draws upon readily available patient data from the EHR, rapidly quantifies disease severity, and predicts the likelihood of critical illness onset.
Control Arm
Control Arm (active comparator): hospital sites that do not implement eCARTv5 will be active comparator.
Standard of care control
Standard of care is the health system's clinical best practices and workflows for identifying high-risk patients for clinical deterioration, including other tools already built into the electronic health record (EHR). Hospitals that do not implement eCARTv5 will be compared as a control against hospitals that do implement eCARTv5.
Interventions
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eCARTv5 clinical deterioration monitoring
eCART is a predictive analytic used for the identification of acute clinical deterioration built upon more than a decade of ongoing scientific research and chronicled in numerous peer-reviewed publications. eCART draws upon readily available patient data from the EHR, rapidly quantifies disease severity, and predicts the likelihood of critical illness onset.
Standard of care control
Standard of care is the health system's clinical best practices and workflows for identifying high-risk patients for clinical deterioration, including other tools already built into the electronic health record (EHR). Hospitals that do not implement eCARTv5 will be compared as a control against hospitals that do implement eCARTv5.
Eligibility Criteria
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Inclusion Criteria
* Admitted to an eCART-monitored medical-surgical unit (scoring location)
Exclusion Criteria
* Not admitted to an eCART-monitored medical surgical unit (scoring location)
18 Years
ALL
No
Sponsors
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Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority
FED
University of Chicago
OTHER
BayCare Health System
OTHER
University of Wisconsin, Madison
OTHER
Yale University
OTHER
AgileMD, Inc.
INDUSTRY
Responsible Party
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Principal Investigators
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Dana P Edelson, MD, MS
Role: STUDY_CHAIR
AgileMD, Inc.
Locations
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Yale New Haven Health System
New Haven, Connecticut, United States
BayCare Health System
Clearwater, Florida, United States
University of Wisconsin Health
Madison, Wisconsin, United States
Countries
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References
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Churpek MM, Yuen TC, Park SY, Meltzer DO, Hall JB, Edelson DP. Derivation of a cardiac arrest prediction model using ward vital signs*. Crit Care Med. 2012 Jul;40(7):2102-8. doi: 10.1097/CCM.0b013e318250aa5a.
Churpek MM, Yuen TC, Winslow C, Robicsek AA, Meltzer DO, Gibbons RD, Edelson DP. Multicenter development and validation of a risk stratification tool for ward patients. Am J Respir Crit Care Med. 2014 Sep 15;190(6):649-55. doi: 10.1164/rccm.201406-1022OC.
Kang MA, Churpek MM, Zadravecz FJ, Adhikari R, Twu NM, Edelson DP. Real-Time Risk Prediction on the Wards: A Feasibility Study. Crit Care Med. 2016 Aug;44(8):1468-73. doi: 10.1097/CCM.0000000000001716.
Winslow CJ, Edelson DP, Churpek MM, Taneja M, Shah NS, Datta A, Wang CH, Ravichandran U, McNulty P, Kharasch M, Halasyamani LK. The Impact of a Machine Learning Early Warning Score on Hospital Mortality: A Multicenter Clinical Intervention Trial. Crit Care Med. 2022 Sep 1;50(9):1339-1347. doi: 10.1097/CCM.0000000000005492. Epub 2022 Aug 15.
Other Identifiers
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1.0
Identifier Type: -
Identifier Source: org_study_id
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