Reducing VA No-Shows: Evaluation of Predictive Overbooking Applied to Colonoscopy

NCT ID: NCT01639443

Last Updated: 2018-04-12

Study Results

Results available

Outcome measurements, participant flow, baseline characteristics, and adverse events have been published for this study.

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Basic Information

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Recruitment Status

COMPLETED

Clinical Phase

NA

Total Enrollment

180 participants

Study Classification

INTERVENTIONAL

Study Start Date

2013-07-08

Study Completion Date

2016-06-30

Brief Summary

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In this research study, investigators use colonoscopy as a case example to evaluate a predictive overbooking model derived using patient-level predictors of absenteeism. The no-show overbooking intervention employs a logistic regression model that uses patient data to predict the odds of no-showing with 80% accuracy. These projected no-show appointments will be overbooked by clerks for patients who agree to join a "fast track" short-call line. By rapidly processing endoscopy patients and moving them out of traditional slots, investigators predict more scheduling slots would become available for patients awaiting colonoscopy.

Detailed Description

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Patient "no-shows" are especially common in VA gastrointestinal (GI) endoscopy units, where both open-access endoscopy scheduling and patient dislike of procedures contribute to high absenteeism. In this proposal, investigators use endoscopy as a case example to evaluate a predictive overbooking model derived using patient-level predictors of absenteeism. The no-show overbooking intervention employs a logistic regression model that uses patient data to predict the odds of no-showing with 80% accuracy. These projected no-show appointments will be overbooked by clerks for patients who agree to join a "fast track" short-call line. However, patients scheduled for upper endoscopies in the "fast track" assume a small risk of service denial on the day of their overbooking in case of inaccurate predictions. If this occurs, the patient is guaranteed service in the next available position and is assured of having a shorter wait time. Patients scheduled for colonoscopies will never be turned down but may experience delays in the waiting room the day of their "fast track" appointment. By rapidly processing endoscopy patients and moving them out of traditional slots, investigators predict more scheduling slots would become available for patients awaiting colonoscopy. Investigators propose to conduct a prospective, 24-month, interrupted time series (ITS) trial in the WLAVA (West Los Angeles Veterans Administration) GI clinic endoscopy unit. During intervention periods, investigators will activate the no-show predictive overbooking strategy described above. Investigators will compare outcomes between scheduling strategies, including differences in percent utilization of capacity (primary outcome), number of Veterans served, mean patient lag time between scheduling and procedure, number of unexpected service denials ("bumps") from no-show predictive overbooking, and direct costs of care. Investigators will analyze differences using both traditional univariate and multivariate approaches, and using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) analyses to adjust for auto-correlations in ITS data.

Conditions

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Colon Cancer

Study Design

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Allocation Method

RANDOMIZED

Intervention Model

PARALLEL

Primary Study Purpose

HEALTH_SERVICES_RESEARCH

Blinding Strategy

NONE

Study Groups

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Fast-tracked

'Predictive no-show overbooking' intervention. Patients who volunteer to enroll in "fast-track" line, which gives them an opportunity to overbook their appointment for endoscopy earlier in a predictive no-show slots.

Group Type EXPERIMENTAL

Predictive no-show overbooking

Intervention Type OTHER

During intervention period, every Veteran scheduled for an endoscopy will be offered "fast-track" offer, which gives them a chance to get their endoscopy procedure done earlier than usual scheduling by overbooking their appointment in a predictive no-show slot.

Control

Patients who are scheduled routinely

Group Type NO_INTERVENTION

No interventions assigned to this group

Interventions

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Predictive no-show overbooking

During intervention period, every Veteran scheduled for an endoscopy will be offered "fast-track" offer, which gives them a chance to get their endoscopy procedure done earlier than usual scheduling by overbooking their appointment in a predictive no-show slot.

Intervention Type OTHER

Eligibility Criteria

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Inclusion Criteria

* Patients who are scheduled for upper endoscopy and agree to the terms of "fast track" offer.

Exclusion Criteria

* If a patient expresses concern about service denial, confusion about the bargain, or refuses to participate, the investigators will schedule these patients routinely.
Minimum Eligible Age

18 Years

Eligible Sex

ALL

Accepts Healthy Volunteers

Yes

Sponsors

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VA Office of Research and Development

FED

Sponsor Role lead

Responsible Party

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Responsibility Role SPONSOR

Principal Investigators

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Paul G. Shekelle, MD PhD MPH

Role: PRINCIPAL_INVESTIGATOR

VA Greater Los Angeles Healthcare System, West Los Angeles, CA

Locations

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VA Greater Los Angeles Healthcare System, West Los Angeles, CA

West Los Angeles, California, United States

Site Status

Countries

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United States

References

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Reid MW, Cohen S, Wang H, Kaung A, Patel A, Tashjian V, Williams DL Jr, Martinez B, Spiegel BM. Preventing patient absenteeism: validation of a predictive overbooking model. Am J Manag Care. 2015 Dec;21(12):902-10.

Reference Type RESULT
PMID: 26671702 (View on PubMed)

Reid MW, May FP, Martinez B, Cohen S, Wang H, Williams DL Jr, Spiegel BM. Preventing Endoscopy Clinic No-Shows: Prospective Validation of a Predictive Overbooking Model. Am J Gastroenterol. 2016 Sep;111(9):1267-73. doi: 10.1038/ajg.2016.269. Epub 2016 Jul 5.

Reference Type RESULT
PMID: 27377518 (View on PubMed)

May FP, Reid MW, Cohen S, Dailey F, Spiegel BM. Predictive overbooking and active recruitment increases uptake of endoscopy appointments among African American patients. Gastrointest Endosc. 2017 Apr;85(4):700-705. doi: 10.1016/j.gie.2016.09.001. Epub 2016 Sep 10.

Reference Type RESULT
PMID: 27623103 (View on PubMed)

Other Identifiers

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1I01HX000878-01

Identifier Type: NIH

Identifier Source: secondary_id

View Link

IIR 12-055

Identifier Type: -

Identifier Source: org_study_id

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