Forecast Number of Covid-19 Cases Worldwide

NCT ID: NCT04460274

Last Updated: 2020-07-08

Study Results

Results pending

The study team has not published outcome measurements, participant flow, or safety data for this trial yet. Check back later for updates.

Basic Information

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Recruitment Status

COMPLETED

Total Enrollment

7882471 participants

Study Classification

OBSERVATIONAL

Study Start Date

2019-12-31

Study Completion Date

2020-06-20

Brief Summary

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Coronavirus disease-19 (Covid-19) had an unprecedented effect on both nations and health systems. Time series modeling using Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Averages (ARIMA) models have been used to forecast variables extensively mainly in statistics and econometrics. The investigators aimed to predict the total number of cases for Covid-19 using ARIMA models of time-series analysis.

Detailed Description

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Coronavirus Disease 19 (Covid-19) is an infectious disease initially defined in December 2019 before becoming pandemic. Respiratory disease is the main form of disease causing acute respiratory distress as the main cause of death.

Increased number of cases worldwide had put an enormous load on public health resulting lockdowns, quarantines and curfews. Predicting number of cases is hard as the increment of cases between communities differ.

Time series had been used in different fields of science to predict, such as signal processing, mathematical finance, weather prediction. In medicine, time series analysis were used in number of admitted patients to hospitals. Aim of this study is to predict the total number of Covid-19 cases worldwide using time series anaylsis.

Conditions

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Covid-19

Study Design

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Observational Model Type

COHORT

Study Time Perspective

RETROSPECTIVE

Study Groups

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Model Building

Number of Covid-19 cases from December 31, 2019 to June 1, 2020 were used to build ARIMA model using Hyndman-Khandakar algorithm.

Model Building

Intervention Type OTHER

Model building

Model Validation

Number of Covid-19 cases from June 2, 2020 to June 15, 2020 were used to forecast cases using the ARIMA model

Model validation

Intervention Type OTHER

Model validation

Interventions

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Model Building

Model building

Intervention Type OTHER

Model validation

Model validation

Intervention Type OTHER

Eligibility Criteria

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Inclusion Criteria

* Confirmed case of Covid-19

Exclusion Criteria

* Cases not reported
Eligible Sex

ALL

Accepts Healthy Volunteers

No

Sponsors

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Turkish Ministry of Health Izmir Teaching Hospital

OTHER_GOV

Sponsor Role lead

Responsible Party

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Serhat Akay

Principal Investigator

Responsibility Role PRINCIPAL_INVESTIGATOR

Locations

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Republic of Turkey, Health Sciences University, Izmir Bozyaka Education and Training Hospital

Izmir, , Turkey (Türkiye)

Site Status

Countries

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Turkey (Türkiye)

Other Identifiers

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TurkishMOHITH-TimeSeries

Identifier Type: -

Identifier Source: org_study_id

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