APA Charts Path Toward Biomarkers for Psychiatry as New Conceptual Framework Proposed

The American Psychiatric Association has released a series of papers offering a proposed roadmap for the future of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders. The five papers, released January 28, 2026, include the Initial Strategy for the Future of the DSM and four accompanying commentaries, which are the result of the committee's year of structured debate and consideration of long-standing critiques and rapid scientific advances.

The papers propose a forward-looking model for the evolution of the DSM and suggest changing the name from Diagnostic and Statistical Manual to Diagnostic and Scientific Manual to better reflect its scientific and global scope. The four accompanying papers address structure and dimensions of the DSM; the role of biomarkers and biological factors in diagnosis; vision for incorporating socioeconomic, cultural and environmental determinants of health and intersectionality; and the role of functioning and quality of life in psychiatric diagnosis.

A new paper published February 11, 2026 in JAMA Psychiatry, titled One-Year Actigraphy Study of Sleep and Rest-Activity Rhythms as Markers of Relapse in Depression, examined whether actigraphy-derived sleep and rest-activity rhythms are associated with relapse in depression. In this cohort study of 93 deeply phenotyped adults with remitted depression, lower baseline sleep regularity, relative amplitude, sleep efficiency, and higher wake after sleep onset were associated with an approximately 2-fold higher relapse risk. Lower relative amplitude remained predictive after adjusting for concurrent Montgomery-Åsberg Depression Rating Scale scores. Results suggest that actigraphy metrics may serve as scalable biomarkers to identify individuals at higher risk of relapse, supporting the use of digital technology for relapse monitoring.

Individuals with a more irregular sleep profile had nearly double the risk of relapse. The strongest predictor of relapse was whether a person's body detected less difference between daytime activity and nighttime rest. How much time spent awake during the night after already falling asleep also predicted increased risk of depression relapse. Participants' sleep schedules became more erratic before a relapse took place.

A conceptual framework titled Conceptual Biomarkers and Theoretical Biological Factors for Psychiatric and Intelligence Nosology proposes that electrical and chemical signals are the most likely options for biomarkers, given empirically supported evidence in neuroscience. The framework looks beyond neurons to electrical and chemical signals, exploring that in clusters of neurons, electrical and chemical signals are in sets, and it is those sets that mechanize and specify functions. It states that neurons are conduits or bridges that signals use to carry out functions, and that signals are in sets in clusters of neurons.

The framework proposes it is possible to use signals, conceptually, to explain and display all disorders in the DSM. By 2030, it is possible that there will be a new Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, updating from the current fifth edition, text revised. The objective is to move psychiatry to components and their mechanisms in the brain, then have this open the path towards developing biomarkers for mental disorders before decade is out.

The framework also addresses human intelligence nosology. There is no equivalent of a DSM for human intelligence. There is no definition in neuroscience for what human intelligence is, its types, or its mechanisms in the brain. The framework proposes it is possible to use electrical and chemical signals to develop, explain, and display the two main types of human intelligence: improvement and operational intelligence, to ensure that options are broadened towards survival in the age of AI.

A February 17, 2026 analysis in The Atlantic, titled AI Agents Are Taking America by Storm, stated that some academics are testing Claude Code's ability to autonomously generate papers; others are using agents for biology research. Journalists have been experimenting with Claude Code to write data-driven articles from scratch, and earlier this month, a pair used the bot to create a mock competitor to Monday.com, a public software company worth billions. In under an hour, they had a working prototype. Although the actual quality of all of these AI-generated papers and analyses remains unclear, the progress is both stunning and alarming.

It is possible to have this new nosology done for psychiatry and human intelligence before August 31, 2026. This seminal work on conceptual brain science could move psychiatry and intelligence forward, as well as neurology.