Moderna Navigates Post-Pandemic Transition Amid Pipeline Volatility and Regulatory Setbacks

Moderna, Inc. (NASDAQ: MRNA) closed at $49.87 per share as of February 17, 2026, reflecting returns of 18.1% over the last seven days and 61.6% year to date. The Cambridge-based biotechnology company is navigating a critical transition from its pandemic-era dominance to a diversified mRNA platform targeting respiratory diseases and oncology.

The stock experienced a 5.3% decline on February 11, 2026, following an FDA Refusal-to-File for its seasonal flu vaccine candidate, mRNA-1010. The regulatory setback stemmed from trial comparator issues rather than safety failures. Despite recent gains, the stock remains significantly below its 2021 all-time highs of nearly $500, with three-year and five-year returns negative at 64.2% and 67.8% respectively.

Moderna reported full-year 2025 revenue of $1.9 billion, a 40% decline from 2024, as the world moved toward a seasonal, private-market model for COVID vaccinations. The company posted a net loss of $2.8 billion for 2025, an improvement from the $3.6 billion loss in 2024, aided by a $2.2 billion reduction in operating expenses. Moderna ended 2025 with $8.1 billion in cash and investments, which management views as a bridge to 2028 when the company anticipates returning to cash-flow breakeven as the respiratory portfolio and oncology products scale.

The company's RSV vaccine for older adults, mRESVIA, has secured roughly a 34% share in the 65+ segment, largely due to its pre-filled syringe format, which is preferred by pharmacists for ease of administration. Revenue is currently derived from commercial product sales, primarily the Spikevax COVID-19 vaccine and the newly launched mRESVIA, as well as strategic partnerships with Merck & Co. (NYSE: MRK) for cancer therapies and Vertex Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: VRTX) for cystic fibrosis.

A Discounted Cash Flow model using a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of $89.84 per share for Moderna. The latest twelve-month free cash flow is a loss of approximately $2.19 billion. Analyst estimates project free cash flow of $571.5 million by 2030, with later years extrapolated to reach into the low single-digit billions by 2035. Compared with the recent share price of $49.87, this implies the stock is 44.5% undervalued according to this method.

Moderna currently trades on a price-to-sales ratio of 10.13x, which sits below the Biotechs industry average of 12.01x but above the peer group average of 5.07x. A proprietary Fair Ratio calculation of 1.45x suggests the shares trade well above what this framework would view as a balanced level after considering factors such as earnings growth, profit margins, risk profile, industry and market cap.

Founded in 2010, Moderna was built on the premise that cells could be programmed to manufacture their own medicinal proteins. The company's 2018 Initial Public Offering was, at the time, the largest in biotech history. The 2020 pandemic accelerated Moderna's trajectory by a decade, transforming it from a clinical-stage firm with no products to a global household name with tens of billions in annual revenue.

The company's business model is centered on a platform approach utilizing standardized mRNA delivery technology, allowing it to target different diseases using the same manufacturing infrastructure. With a multi-billion dollar cash pile and a pipeline reaching critical Phase 3 readouts, Moderna is transitioning from a pandemic-response entity into a multi-product respiratory and oncology powerhouse.