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Machine Learning Algorithm for Predicting Postoperative Delirium in Elderly Patients After Thoracic Surgery

NCT ID: NCT06226480

Last Updated: 2024-12-03

Study Results

Results pending

The study team has not published outcome measurements, participant flow, or safety data for this trial yet. Check back later for updates.

Basic Information

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Recruitment Status

COMPLETED

Total Enrollment

3967 participants

Study Classification

OBSERVATIONAL

Study Start Date

2024-02-25

Study Completion Date

2024-07-31

Brief Summary

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Postoperative delirium (POD) is a common and severe complication in patients undergoing major surgery, especially in the elderly. POD has been proven to be associated with increased morbidity and mortality, institutionalization, and high healthcare costs. This retrospective cohort study aimed to use machine learning methods to develop clinically meaningful models to support clinical decision making.

Detailed Description

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The primary outcome was the incidence of POD within 3 days postoperatively. The patients will be randomly split into two datasets with split ratios of 80% and 20%.

Subsequently, 80% of the patients will be used for training, and 20% of the patients will be used for testing. Multiple machine learning algorithms will be used to develop POD risk prediction models. The discrimination ability of the prediction models will be assessed by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The calibration of the model will be evaluated using the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test. Decision curve analysis (DCA) will be used to evaluate the net benefits for each threshold probability. The best model will be selected by comparing the performance between the models. Then the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) will be used to explain the best one.

Conditions

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Postoperative Delirium

Study Design

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Observational Model Type

COHORT

Study Time Perspective

RETROSPECTIVE

Eligibility Criteria

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Inclusion Criteria

* aged ≥ 65 years
* elective segmentectomy, lobectomy, or esophagectomy surgeries
* general anesthesia

Exclusion Criteria

* surgery length less than 1 hour
* preoperative cognitive dysfunction
* admission to the intensive care unit
* second operation within 24 hours
* missing data for any variables
Minimum Eligible Age

65 Years

Eligible Sex

ALL

Accepts Healthy Volunteers

No

Sponsors

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Affiliated Hospital of Nantong University

OTHER

Sponsor Role lead

Responsible Party

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Responsibility Role SPONSOR

Locations

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Affiliated Hospital of Nantong University

Nantong, Jiangsu, China

Site Status

Countries

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China

Other Identifiers

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YJXYY202204-YSC07

Identifier Type: OTHER_GRANT

Identifier Source: secondary_id

QNZ2023004

Identifier Type: OTHER_GRANT

Identifier Source: secondary_id

2024-K002-01

Identifier Type: -

Identifier Source: org_study_id