Trial Outcomes & Findings for Modeling the Epidemiologic Transition Study (NCT NCT02925156)

NCT ID: NCT02925156

Last Updated: 2025-09-17

Results Overview

The change in body weight (measured in kilograms) will be measured for participants 24 months after baseline.

Recruitment status

COMPLETED

Target enrollment

2506 participants

Primary outcome timeframe

24 months

Results posted on

2025-09-17

Participant Flow

Recruitment began on July 16, 2008 and ended on February 22, 2019

Participant milestones

Participant milestones
Measure	Ghanaian Men Men in the Ghana cohort are located at or near the the village of Nkwantakese which is approximately 20 kilometers outside of Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology in Kumasi.	South African Men Men in the South Africa cohort are located at or near Khayelitsha, the 3rd largest township in South Africa, which is an adjacent town to the city of Cape Town. The population of Khayelitsha is about 500,000 people.	Jamaican Men Men in the Jamaica cohort are located at or near Spanish Town, Jamaica which is an urban area 25 km from the center of Kingston. The population of Spanish Town in 1991 was estimated at 92,000 people.	Seychelles Men Men in the Seychelles cohort are located at or near The Republic of Seychelles, which is an archipelago with 81,000 inhabitants located approximately 1,500 km east of Kenya in the Indian Ocean and approximately 2,000 km north of the island of Mauritius.	United States Men Men in the United States cohort are located at or near Maywood, IL, which is an African-American working class community adjacent to the western border of Chicago, IL. The population of Maywood in 2010 was estimated at 24,090 people.	Ghanaian Women Women in the Ghana cohort are located at or near the the village of Nkwantakese which is approximately 20 kilometers outside of Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology in Kumasi.	South African Women Women in the South Africa cohort are located at or near Khayelitsha, the 3rd largest township in South Africa, which is an adjacent town to the city of Cape Town. The population of Khayelitsha is about 500,000 people.	Jamaican Women Women in the Jamaica cohort are located at or near Spanish Town, Jamaica which is an urban area 25 km from the center of Kingston. The population of Spanish Town in 1991 was estimated at 92,000 people.	Seychelles Women Women in the Seychelles cohort are located at or near The Republic of Seychelles, which is an archipelago with 81,000 inhabitants located approximately 1,500 km east of Kenya in the Indian Ocean and approximately 2,000 km north of the island of Mauritius.	United States Women Women in the United States cohort are located at or near Maywood, IL, which is an African-American working class community adjacent to the western border of Chicago, IL. The population of Maywood in 2010 was estimated at 24,090 people.
Overall Study STARTED	207	236	249	230	245	293	268	251	270	257
Overall Study COMPLETED	180	183	198	171	156	186	234	215	197	223
Overall Study NOT COMPLETED	27	53	51	59	89	107	34	36	73	34

Reasons for withdrawal

Reasons for withdrawal
Measure	Ghanaian Men Men in the Ghana cohort are located at or near the the village of Nkwantakese which is approximately 20 kilometers outside of Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology in Kumasi.	South African Men Men in the South Africa cohort are located at or near Khayelitsha, the 3rd largest township in South Africa, which is an adjacent town to the city of Cape Town. The population of Khayelitsha is about 500,000 people.	Jamaican Men Men in the Jamaica cohort are located at or near Spanish Town, Jamaica which is an urban area 25 km from the center of Kingston. The population of Spanish Town in 1991 was estimated at 92,000 people.	Seychelles Men Men in the Seychelles cohort are located at or near The Republic of Seychelles, which is an archipelago with 81,000 inhabitants located approximately 1,500 km east of Kenya in the Indian Ocean and approximately 2,000 km north of the island of Mauritius.	United States Men Men in the United States cohort are located at or near Maywood, IL, which is an African-American working class community adjacent to the western border of Chicago, IL. The population of Maywood in 2010 was estimated at 24,090 people.	Ghanaian Women Women in the Ghana cohort are located at or near the the village of Nkwantakese which is approximately 20 kilometers outside of Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology in Kumasi.	South African Women Women in the South Africa cohort are located at or near Khayelitsha, the 3rd largest township in South Africa, which is an adjacent town to the city of Cape Town. The population of Khayelitsha is about 500,000 people.	Jamaican Women Women in the Jamaica cohort are located at or near Spanish Town, Jamaica which is an urban area 25 km from the center of Kingston. The population of Spanish Town in 1991 was estimated at 92,000 people.	Seychelles Women Women in the Seychelles cohort are located at or near The Republic of Seychelles, which is an archipelago with 81,000 inhabitants located approximately 1,500 km east of Kenya in the Indian Ocean and approximately 2,000 km north of the island of Mauritius.	United States Women Women in the United States cohort are located at or near Maywood, IL, which is an African-American working class community adjacent to the western border of Chicago, IL. The population of Maywood in 2010 was estimated at 24,090 people.
Overall Study Lost to Follow-up	27	53	51	59	89	107	34	36	73	34

Baseline Characteristics

Race and Ethnicity were not collected from any participant.

Baseline characteristics by cohort

Baseline characteristics by cohort
Measure	Ghanaian Men n=207 Participants Men in the Ghana cohort are located at or near the the village of Nkwantakese which is approximately 20 kilometers outside of Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology in Kumasi.	South African Men n=236 Participants Men in the South Africa cohort are located at or near Khayelitsha, the 3rd largest township in South Africa, which is an adjacent town to the city of Cape Town. The population of Khayelitsha is about 500,000 people.	Jamaican Men n=249 Participants Men in the Jamaica cohort are located at or near Spanish Town, Jamaica which is an urban area 25 km from the center of Kingston. The population of Spanish Town in 1991 was estimated at 92,000 people.	Seychelles Men n=230 Participants Men in the Seychelles cohort are located at or near The Republic of Seychelles, which is an archipelago with 81,000 inhabitants located approximately 1,500 km east of Kenya in the Indian Ocean and approximately 2,000 km north of the island of Mauritius.	United States Men n=245 Participants Men in the United States cohort are located at or near Maywood, IL, which is an African-American working class community adjacent to the western border of Chicago, IL. The population of Maywood in 2010 was estimated at 24,090 people.	Ghanaian Women n=293 Participants Women in the Ghana cohort are located at or near the the village of Nkwantakese which is approximately 20 kilometers outside of Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology in Kumasi.	South African Women n=268 Participants Women in the South Africa cohort are located at or near Khayelitsha, the 3rd largest township in South Africa, which is an adjacent town to the city of Cape Town. The population of Khayelitsha is about 500,000 people.	Jamaican Women n=251 Participants Women in the Jamaica cohort are located at or near Spanish Town, Jamaica which is an urban area 25 km from the center of Kingston. The population of Spanish Town in 1991 was estimated at 92,000 people.	Seychelles Women n=270 Participants Women in the Seychelles cohort are located at or near The Republic of Seychelles, which is an archipelago with 81,000 inhabitants located approximately 1,500 km east of Kenya in the Indian Ocean and approximately 2,000 km north of the island of Mauritius.	United States Women n=257 Participants Women in the United States cohort are located at or near Maywood, IL, which is an African-American working class community adjacent to the western border of Chicago, IL. The population of Maywood in 2010 was estimated at 24,090 people.	Total n=2506 Participants Total of all reporting groups
Age, Continuous	34.6 years STANDARD_DEVIATION 6.7 • n=207 Participants	33.7 years STANDARD_DEVIATION 5.6 • n=236 Participants	34.0 years STANDARD_DEVIATION 5.9 • n=249 Participants	36.5 years STANDARD_DEVIATION 5.1 • n=230 Participants	35.6 years STANDARD_DEVIATION 6.2 • n=245 Participants	34.0 years STANDARD_DEVIATION 6.6 • n=293 Participants	33.1 years STANDARD_DEVIATION 6.0 • n=268 Participants	34.7 years STANDARD_DEVIATION 6.2 • n=251 Participants	35.8 years STANDARD_DEVIATION 6.0 • n=270 Participants	35.0 years STANDARD_DEVIATION 6.3 • n=257 Participants	34.7 years STANDARD_DEVIATION 6.2 • n=2506 Participants
Sex: Female, Male Female	0 Participants n=207 Participants	0 Participants n=236 Participants	0 Participants n=249 Participants	0 Participants n=230 Participants	0 Participants n=245 Participants	293 Participants n=293 Participants	268 Participants n=268 Participants	251 Participants n=251 Participants	270 Participants n=270 Participants	257 Participants n=257 Participants	1339 Participants n=2506 Participants
Sex: Female, Male Male	207 Participants n=207 Participants	236 Participants n=236 Participants	249 Participants n=249 Participants	230 Participants n=230 Participants	245 Participants n=245 Participants	0 Participants n=293 Participants	0 Participants n=268 Participants	0 Participants n=251 Participants	0 Participants n=270 Participants	0 Participants n=257 Participants	1167 Participants n=2506 Participants
Race and Ethnicity Not Collected	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0 Participants Race and Ethnicity were not collected from any participant.
Region of Enrollment United States	0 participants n=207 Participants	0 participants n=236 Participants	0 participants n=249 Participants	0 participants n=230 Participants	245 participants n=245 Participants	0 participants n=293 Participants	0 participants n=268 Participants	0 participants n=251 Participants	0 participants n=270 Participants	257 participants n=257 Participants	502 participants n=2506 Participants
Region of Enrollment Ghana	207 participants n=207 Participants	0 participants n=236 Participants	0 participants n=249 Participants	0 participants n=230 Participants	0 participants n=245 Participants	293 participants n=293 Participants	0 participants n=268 Participants	0 participants n=251 Participants	0 participants n=270 Participants	0 participants n=257 Participants	500 participants n=2506 Participants
Region of Enrollment South Africa	0 participants n=207 Participants	236 participants n=236 Participants	0 participants n=249 Participants	0 participants n=230 Participants	0 participants n=245 Participants	0 participants n=293 Participants	268 participants n=268 Participants	0 participants n=251 Participants	0 participants n=270 Participants	0 participants n=257 Participants	504 participants n=2506 Participants
Region of Enrollment Jamaica	0 participants n=207 Participants	0 participants n=236 Participants	249 participants n=249 Participants	0 participants n=230 Participants	0 participants n=245 Participants	0 participants n=293 Participants	0 participants n=268 Participants	251 participants n=251 Participants	0 participants n=270 Participants	0 participants n=257 Participants	500 participants n=2506 Participants
Region of Enrollment Seychelles	0 participants n=207 Participants	0 participants n=236 Participants	0 participants n=249 Participants	230 participants n=230 Participants	0 participants n=245 Participants	0 participants n=293 Participants	0 participants n=268 Participants	0 participants n=251 Participants	270 participants n=270 Participants	0 participants n=257 Participants	500 participants n=2506 Participants
Body Mass Index	22.2 kg/m^2 STANDARD_DEVIATION 2.7 • n=207 Participants	22.4 kg/m^2 STANDARD_DEVIATION 4.3 • n=236 Participants	23.6 kg/m^2 STANDARD_DEVIATION 4.5 • n=249 Participants	26.5 kg/m^2 STANDARD_DEVIATION 4.9 • n=230 Participants	29.7 kg/m^2 STANDARD_DEVIATION 7.5 • n=245 Participants	25.5 kg/m^2 STANDARD_DEVIATION 5.2 • n=293 Participants	31.9 kg/m^2 STANDARD_DEVIATION 8.2 • n=268 Participants	29.5 kg/m^2 STANDARD_DEVIATION 6.7 • n=251 Participants	27.6 kg/m^2 STANDARD_DEVIATION 6.2 • n=270 Participants	34.1 kg/m^2 STANDARD_DEVIATION 8.8 • n=257 Participants	27.4 kg/m^2 STANDARD_DEVIATION 7.3 • n=2506 Participants

PRIMARY outcome

Timeframe: 24 months

Population: The analysis population comprises participants who have a baseline and follow-up body weight recorded

The change in body weight (measured in kilograms) will be measured for participants 24 months after baseline.